Countering Nuclear Proliferation

Abstract

The threat of nuclear proliferation is no longer being adequately contained by the original nuclear non-proliferation regime with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) at its heart.

As of 2001, the United States (US) administration has adopted new measures to counteract the proliferation of nuclear weapons. This paper proposes that the new measures adopted by the US are not effective in ensuring security from nuclear proliferation or protecting against nuclear attack. In fact it is argued that the US approach is paradoxically driving nuclear proliferation and therefore increasing the security risk to the US, its measures acting to undermine the nuclear non-proliferation regime without replacing it with an improved regime.

It is proposed that the nuclear regime for all of its failings is a necessary bedrock for a world where nuclear non-proliferation is a norm. This regime, and the treaty, is reliant on multilateral buy-in. A constructive way forward would be to fix the NPT and then build new mechanisms to counter the new drivers affecting both demand and supply of nuclear weaponization.

The assumption – nuclear non-proliferation norm

This paper is predicated on the assumption that the norm of global nuclear non-proliferation should be upheld. The containment of nuclear weapons provides security to every nation; nuclear weapons should be contained and restricted as much as possible. The nuclear non-proliferation regime, with the Nuclear non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) at its centre, is critical to containing the spread of nuclear weapons. For the purposes of a detailed health check of the current nuclear non-proliferation regime and related US policy other schools of thought will not be looked at in this paper.

In order to undertake a health check of the nuclear non-proliferation regime it is reviewed and evaluated. The review of the nuclear non-proliferation regime is divided into three parts, the treaty itself, the NPT; the watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, which monitors and verifies compliance; and the enforcement of the treaty. The review of the related US policy will be undertaken by identifying initiatives and polices of the US from 2001 to 2005, which are targeting nuclear non-proliferation and their effectiveness will be assessed. A summary of the impact of how the identified measures are impacting the nuclear non-proliferation regime and the resulting effect on the security of the US will be made and recommendations set-out for how the US can most effectively counter and enforce nuclear non-proliferation and protect national security.

The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty: its failings and its future

The creation of the Atomic bomb club

This year (2005) commemorates sixty years since the atom bomb first became a viable weapon of war. The United States developed and tested the first atom bomb in the New Mexico Desert. The test showed the atomic bomb to be unmatched in its destructive capabilities. The same year atom bombs were used for the first and last time by America; dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The global response to this weapon was that the ‘nuke’ should never again be employed. Despite global rejection of the application of nuclear weapons four more states soon followed America’s precedent and developed an overt nuclear capability, by 1964 there were five nuclear powers: America, the Soviet Union, France, Britain and China. The strategy of nuclear deterrence, explaining why nuclear weapons were not used during the Cold War, could no longer provide the assurances against nuclear war in an increasingly unbalanced, multi-polar world. The benefits of acquiring a nuclear capability suggested that the countries that could, would develop nuclear weapons. Predictions of vertical proliferation between the most powerful states drove the need to create a non-proliferation regime. The general fear of nuclear proliferation was that it would make the world more insecure through the increased chances of nuclear warfare.[1]

The creation of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty

The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) was, and still is the most comprehensive, effective lever in place to counter the spread of nuclear weapons. The NPT was signed by Washington, London and Moscow on July 1, 1968 and came into force on March 5, 1970. The underlying aim of the treaty is to provide a legal backbone to the nuclear non-proliferation  norm. The treaty attempts to address vertical proliferation, within states, and horizontal proliferation, across states.  There is essentially a deal that keeps the balance between capping and disarming Nuclear Weapon States (NWS) and ensuring that Non-Nuclear Weapon States (NNWS) do not become NWS.  NWS agree to enter into nuclear disarmament talks ‘in good faith’, as per article 6 of the treaty, and promise to share their nuclear technology for peaceful purposes with NNWS in a bid to allow those countries to benefit from nuclear technology without becoming weaponised. In return NNWS agree not to develop, seek or obtain nuclear weapons. This is a system of incentives and sanctions essentially focused on keeping countries from going nuclear.

‘The NPT and its system of onsite inspections were unique in arms control for almost 20 years…The most remarkable aspect of the treaty is its division of the world into two kinds of states subject to two different sets of obligations…Such an unsymmetrical agreement was possible only because the nuclear weapons states had for many years almost exclusive control over access to nuclear technology.’[2]

The NPT’s effectiveness lies in its comprehensiveness, it includes almost all members of the United Nations and has sustained a norm of global nuclear non-proliferation. The treaty’s success in gaining ratified members is unprecedented with nearly one hundred and ninety countries by 2005. Countries that signed the treaty are subject to its law as well as their own sovereign laws. The near universal adoption of the treaty has been remarkable as it displays not only an unusually high level of agreement but also submission to a law that can be used to trump sovereign law. The interesting question this poses is around the popularity, the efficacy and therefore the validity of international law. Would the uptake of this treaty ever be put to the test?  If the perception that ratifying the NPT was like an ‘anti-nuclear’ accolade how would members react if the treaty was then enforced? The mettle of this treaty would be tested when and if the treaty failed to react to non-compliance.

The Nuclear non-proliferation regime arguably includes many different treaties and measures, including the START I and II treaties, and the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, however the NPT is the only universal, multilateral treaty, encompassing nearly all countries, irrespective of the nuclear status. It is important not to forget that the regime is the sum of all these endeavours but for the purposes of this paper, the NPT and the accompanying IAEA are the primary subjects. The International Atomic Energy Agency is the body that monitors and verifies the compliance of member states to the NPT.

The NPT honeymoon

The treaty proved to be largely successful in its efforts to curb the spread of nuclear weapons up until the 1990s. To begin with; South Africa, Brazil and Libya displayed the effectiveness of the NPT and the nuclear non-proliferation regime. South Africa was touted as a successful roll-back in the hands of the IAEA, with De Klerk admitting to a covert nuclear weapons programme and effectively handing it over to the IAEA. The end of the cold war in the 90s also proved a successful stage for the IAEA with post-soviet nations working to secure and reduce stores of nuclear weapons left behind by the retreating Russian Federation.

However cracks began to appear when certain renegade countries refused to join, in the form of India and Pakistan. And, what would be later discovered, the treaty could be easily undermined by determined countries who refused to comply with the treaty’s requirements; forcing the international community’s hand at detection and enforcement and showing up loopholes in the treaty and a lack of verification and enforcement mandate in the regime to ensure nuclear non-proliferation.

The treaty was successfully established during the Cold War and reflected the security environment of the five nuclear powers, manifested in international organisations and the global economy. The treaty was largely successful in its first two decades, effectively addressing countries considering nuclear development and retaining them within the non-proliferation regime. Countries such as Argentina, Brazil, Saudi Arabia and Libya have renounced their nuclear programmes and the very fact that only three countries have since explicitly acquired nuclear weapons shows that John F Kennedy’s fear of twenty countries going nuclear by the 1970s was overblown. However in the past decade there has been a decline in the effectiveness of the treaty; more countries are acting contrary to the NPT and going down the path towards nuclear weaponization. The treaty and the regime is proving to be an easy obstacle to by-pass for any motivated state.

The inertia of the NPT

The NPT was predicated on a 25 year review deadline; it was not envisioned to be a permanent, unchanging feature of the nuclear non-proliferation regime. It has surpassed expectations by remaining the key underpinning legal instrument of the non-proliferation regime.

The five-year review sessions were written into the treaty’s charter as a mechanism by which to discuss and update the treaty. However by the second session, conflicts between members disrupted the review session, few final documents have been agreed on. Out of the past four Review Conferences only one, in 1995, produced an agreed Final Document. In 1995 the NPT was up for indefinite renewal after twenty-five years and it was successfully passed. This renewal should have represented the success of the treaty however in the words of Dhanapala, the chairman of the conference, the renewal was an ‘indefinite but conditional extension’. The treaty was deemed to be flawed by many states, especially those that were not nuclear. The allegations come from both sides; non-nuclear members argued that they had successfully fulfilled their obligations in article six (nuclear disarmament) compared to the nuclear members, and nuclear states argued that really the problem was that the NPT is effectively carrying out verification and compliance. The extension of the treaty was agreed upon as part of a package along with two conditions for its renewal and repair. The two measures included in the package were: a document entitled ‘Principles and Objectives for Nuclear Nonproliferation and Disarmament’, and the reinforcement of the review mechanism of the NPT.[3]

Ten years later, the 2005 review session had failed yet again to resolve the problems plaguing the treaty. The failures of the treaty and review processes, encountered throughout the treaty’s history have still not been addressed. Relations between members were such that the agenda itself could not be agreed upon, according to El Baradei, “we are ending a month of rancour…and the same issues continue to stare us in the eyes”.[4] The two conditions of the 1995 indefinite renewal, updating the treaty and review process, have not been addressed.

Issues with the NPT and the nuclear non-proliferation regime

Disarming in good faith is one of underlying issues with the constitution of the treaty, as well as absentees from the treaty, including Israel, Pakistan and India. Issues of verification and enforcement of non-compliance are procedural problems with the implementation of the treaty, these include latent proliferation, second-tier proliferation and improper withdrawal from the treaty.

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[1] NPT (1970), ‘Believing that the proliferation of nuclear weapons would seriously enhance the danger of nuclear war.’

[2] Krass (1997) p.16-17

[3] Dhanapala (2005) p.3-4

[4] Wittner (2005) <http://hnn.us/articles/12185.html>

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